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With this in mind, a 50 percent ensemble Actor Award success rate at the Oscars means that Sinners has a solid shot at a Best Picture win, but it's not a complete lock. Based on its other awards season wins, One Battle After Another still seems to have the edge, especially when it comes to the PGA Awards. Out of the PGA's past 36 winners, 26 have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, a higher success rate than the Actor Awards.